Know the direction of the market
before you place your options trade.
Phoenix fires real-time NQ futures signals with a 69.9% win rate across 2,792 NQ trades — six years of backtested data. NQ and SPX move the same direction 90% of the time during a Phoenix signal window, so options traders use the signals to time SPX and SPY spreads with 5 to 25 minutes of advance notice.
Direction: SHORT
Signal Time: 02/19/2026 1:14 PM ET
Entry: 22,831.25
Profit Target: 22,779.25 (+52 pts / +$1,040)
Stop Loss: 22,943.25 (-112 pts / -$2,240)
Bearish bias — sell lower strike, buy higher strike on SPX/SPY
Close spreads by 1:44 PM ET if not profitable
🔥 Phoenix NQ | 69.9% historical win rate
Every options trade starts with a directional bet. Most traders guess.
You study the greeks. You pick the right expiration, the right strike, the right spread width. Then you ask yourself the hardest question: which direction?
If you get direction wrong, all that options expertise works against you. Credit spreads blow through your short strike. Debit spreads expire worthless. Iron condors get tested on the wrong side.
What if you had a statistically validated system that told you — with 69.9% accuracy across 2,792 backtested NQ trades — whether the market is about to move up or down? And gave you a heads-up before the move starts?
Without Directional Bias
- Guessing direction based on feel
- Watching charts all morning
- Conflicting signals from multiple indicators
- Second-guessing every entry
With Phoenix Alerts
- Slack ping: “Short setup forming”
- Entry alert with exact direction
- Position spreads with confidence
- A close-by time on every alert keeps you disciplined
Three alerts. One clear direction. You decide how to trade it.
NQ is the primary signal — built and validated on Nasdaq futures. ES signals are included as a bonus for futures traders who prefer S&P.
Phoenix detects conditions building for a directional move. You get a Slack alert with direction and options prep guidance. Pull up your options chain, pick your strikes, size your position. No trade has fired yet — you’re just getting ready.
Phoenix fires. You get exact entry price, profit target, stop loss, and dollar values per contract. The alert includes your options action — which strike to sell, which to buy — plus a 30-minute close-by time for managing your spreads.
Phoenix exits. You see exactly what happened — profit target, stop loss, time exit, or breakeven — with options-specific guidance on closing or taking profits on your spreads.
Type: Mean Reversion SHORT ↓
Conditions building — entry may fire within 15 min
Get your bearish SPX/SPY spreads ready — sell lower strike, buy higher
NOT CONFIRMED — preparing only
Direction: SHORT • Entry: 22,831.25
PT: 22,779.25 (+52 pts / +$1,040)
SL: 22,943.25 (-112 pts / -$2,240)
Bearish — sell lower strike, buy higher strike on SPX/SPY
Close by 1:44 PM ET if not profitable
Exit Reason: Profit Target
Entry: 22,831.00 • Exit: 22,779.25
Result: +51.75 pts (+$1,035/contract)
Direction confirmed — take profits on spreads now
Five ways to use Phoenix signals in your options trading
Phoenix tells you direction. You choose the options strategy.
Sell Premium in the Right Direction
Direction is determined entirely by which strike you sell — calls or puts, it doesn’t matter. Phoenix LONG signal: sell an OTM put, buy a lower put. Phoenix SHORT signal: sell an OTM call, buy a higher call. Use a $20–$25 wide spread at 15–20 delta to collect a meaningful credit — a $5-wide spread at this delta only collects $0.40–$0.80.
→ Sell 6,600 call / Buy 6,625 call ($25 wide, ~18Δ)
→ Collect $2.40 credit • Profit as SPX stays below 6,600
→ Spread decays to $1.00 → close to take profit
→ ~$140/contract
Time Your Same-Day Entries
Trading 0DTE SPX options? Phoenix gives you what 0DTE traders need most: direction with a time edge. The pre-trade alert gives you 5–25 minutes to find your strike before the move starts. You’re positioning before the move, not chasing it.
→ Buy SPX 6050 call @ $3.20 before entry fires
→ Phoenix confirms LONG, market runs 15 pts
→ Sell call @ $8.40 → $520/contract
Defined Risk, Directional Conviction
Prefer SPY over SPX? Same concept, smaller size. NQ and SPX moved the same direction on 90% of measured Phoenix signal windows, and SPY tracks SPX, so the signal translates. SPY trades at roughly 1/10th SPX, so a $5-wide SPY spread has similar characteristics to a $50-wide SPX spread.
→ Sell 662/667 call spread @ $0.85 credit
→ SPY drops with NQ → spread decays to $0.30
→ Close at $0.30 → $0.55 × $100
→ $55/contract on $415 max risk
Lean Your Wings With Confidence
Already trading non-directional iron condors? Phoenix tells you which wing to widen and which to tighten. When Phoenix fires SHORT, tighten your bearish wing and widen your bullish wing to collect more premium on the side less likely to be tested.
→ Bearish wing: sell call closer to market (more premium)
→ Bullish wing: sell put further away (safer)
→ More credit on the side less likely to be tested
Add Phoenix to Your Existing Strategy
Already have a trading system? Use Phoenix as a confirmation filter. Only take trades when Phoenix agrees with your direction. One of our early users used Phoenix signals to time adjustments on her existing options strategy — same positions, better entries and exits.
→ Check Phoenix: NQ is also LONG
→ Broad market confirms your thesis
→ Enter with higher conviction, tighter stops
Even losing signals usually move your way first
We measured how far SPX actually travels during a Phoenix signal window, second by second, across 1,720 signals. Most losing futures trades still move favorably before they reverse — which is the window a standing limit order is there to catch.
Two thirds of the signals that lose in futures still push SPX at least two points your way before they turn. Winners resolve fast — median 30 minutes. Losers grind — median 85. A standing limit order costs nothing to leave working and catches the move when it comes.
Long signals: 67.7% agreed with the SPX move
Short signals: 61.5% agreed with the SPX move
Step-by-step instructions on structuring spreads from Phoenix signals, strike selection, sizing for small accounts, and exit rules.
A futures loser that paid an options winner
March 23, 2026 — real alerts, one trade. An illustration of the MFE window, not a typical result.
Current Price: 24,386.75
Get your SPX/SPY spreads ready
NOT CONFIRMED
Direction: SHORT • Entry: 24,355.75
PT: 24,301.15 (+54.60 pts)
SL: 24,473.35 (-117.60 pts)
Close spreads by 1:45 PM ET
Exit Reason: Stop Loss ❌
Result: -117.25 pts (-$2,345/contract)
Direction was wrong — close or roll spreads
The futures trade was a loser. ES moved favorably for just a few minutes after entry — a 10-point dip — before reversing and grinding higher for over an hour to the stop. A futures trader ate the full loss.
The spread trader had a limit order ready at $1.80. It filled automatically at the low of the move. Out in 1 minute 44 seconds with a profit — 39 minutes before the futures stop hit.
The takeaway: Always have your closing limit order in the moment you open the spread. The MFE window can be brief — a few minutes at most on a losing futures trade. A standing limit order catches it automatically.
At entry (1:15 PM), the 0DTE expected move was approximately 30 points. The 6,610 short strike was 31 points OTM — just barely outside the expected move. By the time the futures stop hit at 1:59 PM, the expected move had collapsed to approximately 16 points. Theta had cut the expected move nearly in half in less than 45 minutes.
Even though SPX was touching the 6,610 short strike at that moment, the spread was trading around $7.50–$8.00, not the $25 max. The market then reversed. ES closed at 6,631.50 — 30 points below the short strike — and the spread expired completely worthless. Full $940 profit (4 × $2.35 × 100) for anyone who held all day.
What did the work here: A resting limit order caught the low of the move in 1 minute 44 seconds — that is the whole trade. Theta is the second factor: even at the worst moment, with SPX touching the short strike, the spread was nowhere near max loss. Neither of those is a guarantee, and this is one trade, not a result.
Every entry alert carries a close-by time. It caps how long a trade can go against you.
Winners hit fast. Losers grind. Don’t sit in the grind.
Across 2,792 backtested Phoenix NQ trades, the pattern is consistent: winning trades resolve in a median of 30 minutes. Losing trades take a median of 85 minutes to reach their stop. The longer a trade stays open, the more likely it is to be one of the bad ones.
That is what the close-by time is for. It is risk management, not an edge — it caps the time you spend in a trade that has stopped working, and it means you are not watching a screen waiting for a decision. It will sometimes close a position that would have come good. That is the trade-off, and it is the reason the rule pairs with a resting profit order rather than replacing one.
Combine the two: a limit order working from the moment you open, and a time exit as the backstop. The profit order does the earning. The time exit stops the bleeding.
ThinkorSwim supports a native time stop order — your position closes automatically at a time you specify. The complete order setup takes two minutes:
OCO Limit $1.80 ← profit target (standing immediately)
Time exit entry + 30 min ← the close-by backstop
Enter the spread, place both orders, walk away. The platform handles the rest — profit exit or time exit, whichever comes first. No screen time required after entry.
The four numbers that decide how you structure the trade.
You are not trading futures. So instead of futures P&L, here is what actually matters when you are building a spread off the signal: how often it is right, how long you are in, how far it goes your way, and how far it goes against you first.
1 — How often the direction is right
Long signals have been the stronger side. Both are usable; if you size differently by direction, size the longs bigger. ES runs the identical parameter set with no retuning and holds a 64.1% win rate over 2,336 trades — an untrained instrument agreeing is evidence the edge is not a fit to NQ.
2 — How long the trade stays open
A quarter of winners are done in 10 minutes. Half are done in 30. Losers take nearly three times as long to resolve, which is why a close-by time is worth having — and why 0DTE structures fit this signal: you are usually in and out inside an hour, with theta on your side the whole way. Long winners run slightly longer than short winners (median 35 min vs 20 min).
3 — How far it goes your way
Median favorable excursion is 6.1 SPX points, and two thirds of the signals that lose in futures still reach at least 2 points your way before they turn. The full breakdown is in the MFE section above.
4 — How far it goes against you first
Maximum Adverse Excursion — the worst point of the trade. This is the number that sets your strike distance. Measured on SPX, second by second, over 1,720 signal windows.
Put the same data the other way round — how often does a signal stay inside a given cushion?
A 10-point cushion is where the two groups separate hardest: 84% of eventual winners stay inside it, but only 23.5% of losers do. Tighter than that and you are closing trades that were going to work — only 60% of winners stay inside 5 points. Wider and you collect less for the same test. Short signals run deeper than longs on every measure (median 7.2 points against versus 5.7), so if you adjust strike distance by direction, give the shorts more room.
2020 COVID crash. 2021 bull run. 2022 bear market. 2023 recovery. 2024 AI rally. 2025 volatility. The strategy was profitable in every calendar year of the backtest — not curve-fit to one regime. Backtested January 2020 through September 2026 on 2,792 NQ trades with commissions applied.
$4.32 per signal. Let that sink in.
Most alert services charge $100–200/month for 3–8 signals. Phoenix averages 34.5 NQ signals per month — plus ES signals on top of that.
| Typical Alert Service | Phoenix Alerts | |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly Price | $100 - $200 | $149/mo |
| Markets Covered | 1 | NQ primary + ES bonus |
| NQ Signals / Month | 3-8 | ~34.5 |
| Cost Per Signal | $15 - $65 | $4.32 (NQ alone) |
| Advance Notice | None (alert = entry) | 5-25 min heads-up |
| Win Rate Verified | Rarely published | 69.9% NQ across 2,792 backtested trades |
| SPX Agreement Measured | Not measured | 90% over 1,720 signal windows |
| Robustness Testing | Not disclosed | 100/100 score |
| Overnight Risk | Often holds overnight | Zero — all intraday |
| Options Guidance | Sometimes | Every alert — exact strike direction |
| Price Increases | Passed on to you | Never — your rate is locked for life |
| Your Fills | Crowded signals | Your broker, your strikes, your size |
Built different. Tested different. Proven different.
We built a scoring framework grading strategies 0–100 using walk-forward optimization, Monte Carlo simulation, parameter sensitivity, and regime testing. Most strategies — including ones selling for $200+/month — score zero. Phoenix scores 100.
Phoenix runs live on our own funded prop firm accounts every day, real money. We’re not just selling signals — we trade them. If Phoenix isn’t making us money, we don’t expect it to make you money.
2020 COVID crash. 2021 bull run. 2022 bear market. 2023 recovery. 2024 AI rally. 2025 volatility. Phoenix was profitable every single year. Not curve-fit to one regime. Validated across all of them.
Most services ping you at entry — when it’s too late to position optimally. Phoenix sends a “setup forming” alert 5–25 minutes before entry fires, giving you time to prepare your options chain and pick strikes.
Every Phoenix trade opens and closes within the regular trading session. No overnight gaps. No weekend gap risk. No waking up to find your position blew through your stop while you slept.
Phoenix gives you direction. You execute at your broker, your strikes, your size. No crowded trades, no slippage from hundreds of people hitting the same SPX strike simultaneously. Your fills are always your own.
Built on NQ. Works on SPX. Here’s why.
Phoenix was built on NQ — not ES, not SPX. NQ has the stronger edge (69.9% win rate) precisely because that’s where the strategy was developed and validated. We then measured what SPX actually did during those signal windows: NQ and SPX moved the same direction 90% of the time across 1,720 signals, second by second.
That is a different measurement from a headline correlation number. It is taken on the exact windows the signal defines, which is the only window that matters to you.
This also answers the question “why not just trade SPX signals directly?” The edge lives in NQ. The correlation does the translation work. Options traders get both.
Phoenix is for traders who want direction, not noise.
Great Fit
- Options traders needing directional bias for SPX/SPY
- 0DTE traders who want advance notice before moves
- Credit spread sellers looking for higher-probability setups
- Part-time traders who can’t watch charts all day
- Traders who want data-driven signals, not gut feelings
- Anyone wanting a confirmation layer on existing strategies
- IRA account holders — defined-risk spreads work in IRAs where futures are prohibited. No futures account needed, no margin required beyond the spread width.
Not the Right Fit
- Traders wanting exact options strikes — we give direction, you choose the trade
- People expecting guaranteed profits — roughly 70% means 3 signals in 10 are wrong
- Traders wanting overnight swing signals — Phoenix is 100% intraday
- Traders outside US market hours — all signals fire during RTH (9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET) and require same-day action
- Traders who require tight price stops — Phoenix is mean-reversion; adverse moves of 10–20 NQ points before recovery are normal
- Complete beginners with no options experience — you need to know how to place spreads
Bottom line: If you already know how to trade options and you’ve wished you had a reliable directional bias, Phoenix is what you’ve been looking for.
Four terms. One rate, locked for as long as you stay.
Prepay and pay less per month. Whatever rate you sign up at is yours permanently — future price increases never touch an active subscription. Cancel anytime, no long-term commitment.
| Monthly | $149 | $149.00/mo |
| Quarterly | $399 | $133.00/mo |
| 6 months | $749 | $124.83/mo |
| Annual — best value | $1,397 | $116.42/mo |
Whatever price you subscribe at is yours for as long as your subscription stays continuously active. When we raise prices — and we have before, and will again — existing subscribers don’t move. The only way to lose your rate is to cancel and come back later.
Phoenix NT8 Autotrader
| Monthly | $249 | $249.00/mo |
| Quarterly | $497 | $165.67/mo |
| 6 months | $897 | $149.50/mo |
| Annual — best value | $1,697 | $141.42/mo |
Add the NinjaTrader Autotraders and your Trade Alerts drop to half price — $74.50/month instead of $149. Available on every term, and the rate lock applies to the bundle price too.
50 years of programming. 20+ years teaching traders. This is the best strategy I’ve ever built.
I’m Tom, a retired Air Force Major and the founder of Aeromir Corporation. I’ve been programming since 1974 and teaching options and futures traders since the early 2000s. I’ve built dozens of trading strategies over the years. Most of them failed robustness testing, and I killed them before they ever saw a customer.
Phoenix is different. It’s the first strategy I’ve built that scores 100/100 on robustness testing, holds a roughly 70% win rate across every market regime for six years, and makes money on my own funded prop firm accounts.
I trade Phoenix every day on my own money. That’s the only endorsement that matters.
Trading educator since the 2000s
Retired Air Force Major
Active funded prop firm trader
Kills strategies that don’t pass robustness testing
Everything you need to know.
Nothing. Your rate is locked at whatever you signed up for, permanently, as long as your subscription stays continuously active. We have raised prices before and we will again — existing subscribers have never been moved and never will be.
The one exception is cancellation. If you cancel and resubscribe later, you come back at whatever the current rate is. That’s the only way to lose your locked rate.
Four terms are available: monthly at $149, quarterly at $399, six months at $749, and annual at $1,397. Each longer term costs less per month — the annual plan works out to $116.42/month, about 22% below the monthly rate.
If you’re evaluating, start monthly — there’s no penalty and you can move to a longer term later. If you already know the workflow fits how you trade, the annual plan is the cheapest way to hold a locked rate. And if you also run futures in NinjaTrader, look at the bundle: adding the Autotraders drops your alerts to half price on every term.
Phoenix averages about 34 NQ signals per month, but they’re not evenly distributed. Some weeks are quiet, some are busy. Win rate is measured over hundreds of trades — not 8 or 10. It’s completely normal to have a losing week or even a losing two weeks.
Roughly 3 signals in 10 call the direction wrong. That is the nature of the thing, and it is why position sizing and a consistent exit routine matter more than any individual trade.
The best approach in month one: trade small (1 contract), use the close-by time on every alert without exception, and focus on executing the workflow cleanly rather than on P&L.
Phoenix alerts are delivered via Slack. The setup window between the “setup forming” alert and the actual entry can be as short as 5 minutes — so you need mobile notifications working before your first trading day.
- Install the Slack mobile app on your phone
- Go to Settings → Notifications and enable push notifications
- Open the Phoenix channel and confirm it is not muted
- Send yourself a test message to verify delivery
iOS users: confirm Slack has notification permission in iPhone Settings → Apps → Slack. iOS sometimes denies this by default.
MFE is Maximum Favorable Excursion — the furthest a trade travels in your favor before it closes. It matters because a spread does not need the signal to be right at the end. It only needs the move to happen at some point while you are holding, with an order resting there to catch it.
We measured this directly on SPX, second by second, across 1,720 Phoenix signal windows. Median favorable excursion is 6.1 SPX points. Even among signals that lost in futures, 67.9% still reached at least 2 points in your favor and 57.5% reached 3. What any of that is worth on your particular spread depends on your strikes and what you pay to close — but the movement is there far more often than the futures win rate alone suggests.
Every entry alert includes a specific “close by” time — 30 minutes after the Phoenix entry. Across 2,792 backtested trades, winners have a median duration of 30 minutes and losers a median of 85. Winners are more than twice as likely as losers to be finished inside the first 30 minutes (53.6% vs 24.6%), so the longer a trade runs, the more likely it belongs to the losing group.
Treat it as risk management rather than a profit engine. It caps your time in a trade that has stopped working, and it will occasionally close something that would have recovered. Pair it with a resting profit order — that is the part that earns. ThinkorSwim supports native time stop orders, so you can automate both and walk away.
Two ways to evaluate Phoenix before subscribing:
Read the free course. Modules 1 through 3 of the Phoenix Trade Alerts course are completely free — no subscription required. They cover exactly how the signals work, how to read every alert type, and the complete options trader guide including the direction rule, spread structure, strike selection, and exit rules.
Check the live performance data. We publish live forward results on our performance page so you can verify signals before subscribing. Month-to-month — cancel anytime.
Note: if you cancel and resubscribe later, the current rate may not be available.
Stop guessing direction.
Start trading with a validated edge.
$149/month, with quarterly, six-month and annual terms that bring the effective rate down. Whatever rate you start at stays yours for as long as your subscription is active.